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Prediction for CME (2025-11-05T22:23:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2025-11-05T22:23Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/42462/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible as a full halo directed towards the north/northeast in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and GOES CCOR-1 imagery. This event is observed as a partial halo directed towards the northeast as seen in STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source is an M8.6 flare and subsequent eruption from Active Region 14274 (N30E41) starting around 2025-11-05T22:00Z as seen in GOES SUVI 131/171/195/284/304 and STEREO A EUVI 195/304 imagery. Dimming is observed northwest of the eruption site as seen in GOES SUVI 195 imagery, indicating likely northwest deflection of this event. Field line movement is also observed to the northeast as seen in GOES SUVI 195 and 284 imagery. Additionally, post eruptive arcades are visible starting around 2025-11-05T23:00Z in GOES SUVI 195. An arrival signature which may be associated with this CME is characterized by a small, short-duration increase in B_total from ~9 nT to ~12 nT that was associated with an flip in B_z orientation to predominantly southward, leading to a moderate geomagnetic storm between 2025-11-08T00:00Z and 03:00Z. The flip in B_z was accompanied by a phi angle flip and minor decreases in speed and density.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2025-11-07T21:54Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 6.33

Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-11-09T05:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 80.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 6.0 - 7.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:

:Issued: 2025 Nov 06 1254 UTC
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC #
# (RWC Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 51106
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 06 Nov 2025, 1253UT
SIDC FORECAST
SOLAR FLARES : M-class flares expected (probability >=50%) GEOMAGNETISM : Major (ISES: Severe) magstorm expected (A>=100 or K>=7) SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet PREDICTIONS FOR 06 Nov 2025 10CM FLUX: 156 / AP: 024 PREDICTIONS FOR 07 Nov 2025 10CM FLUX: 160 / AP: 041 PREDICTIONS FOR 08 Nov 2025 10CM FLUX: 164 / AP: 013

Solar Active Regions and flaring: Solar flaring activity was high over the past 24 hours, with 2 M-class flares identified. The largest flare was a
M8.6 flare (SIDC Flare 5941) peaking on November 05 at 22:07 UTC, which was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 687 (NOAA Active Region 4274). The second largest flare was an M1.1 flare (SIDC Flare 5950) peaking on November 06 at
04:31 UTC and was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 689 (NOAA Active Region 4276). A total of 7 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the disk over the past 24 hours. SIDC Sunspot Group 687 (NOAA Active Region 4274) is the largest and most magnetically complex (Beta-Gamma-Delta) region on disk. SIDC Sunspot Group 689 (NOAA Active Region 4276) has rotated over the east limb onto the visible disk. Both these regions produced most of the flaring activity in the last 24 hours. Solar flaring activity is expected to be moderate over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares very likely and a small chance for X-class flares.

Coronal mass ejections: A halo Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) (SIDC CME 594) was detected in SOHO/LASCO-C2 data around 11:00 UTC on November 05. This CME is likely associated with a M7.4 flare (SIDC 5938) peaking on November
05 at 11:18 UTC, which was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 687 (NOAA Active Region 4274). This CME has an estimated speed of around 844 km/s. The CME is expected to arrive at Earth at 18:05 on November 07. A second halo CME (SIDC CME 595) was detected in SOHO/LASCO-C2 data around 22:12 UTC on November 05. This CME is likely associated with a M8.6 flare (SIDC Flare
5941) peaking on November 05 at 22:07 UTC, which was also produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 687 (NOAA Active Region 4274). This CME has an estimated speed of around 844 km/s. The CME is expected to arrive at Earth at 05:00 UTC on November 09.

Solar wind: Over the past 24 hours, the Earth came under the influence of an ICME associated with a CME that left the Sun on November 03. The solar wind speed started the reporting period around 350 km/s and gradually started to increase at 06:30 UTC on November 06 to a speed around 549 km/s.
The total interplanetary magnetic field ranged from 5 to 24 nT, with the Bz reaching a minimum of -16 nT. The phi-angle was mainly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun), with periods in the negative sector.
In the next 24 hours, the solar wind conditions are expected to become more disturbed due to the arrival of a high-speed stream associated with SIDC Coronal Hole 116 and the expected and the expected arrival of a CME (SIDC CME 593) that left the Sun on November 04.

Geomagnetism: The geomagnetic conditions reached major storm levels (Kp 7-) globally and minor storm level (K BEL 5) locally. Moderate to major storm conditions are expected in the next 24 hours.

Proton flux levels: The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux became elevated but has remained below the 10 pfu threshold level and is expected to remain below the threshold for the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at GEO: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-18 and GOES-19 satellites, were below the 1000 pfu threshold in the last 24 hours. The 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain below the threshold during the next 24 hour. The 24-hour electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to remain at normal levels over the next 24 hours.

TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 114, BASED ON 18 STATIONS.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 05 Nov 2025
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA : 085
10CM SOLAR FLUX : 147
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 057
AK WINGST : 027
ESTIMATED AP : 029
ESTIMATED ISN : 078, BASED ON 19 STATIONS.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES
05 2152 2207 2216 N28E40 M8.6 2B 89/4274 II/3
06 0417 0431 0439 ////// M1.1 ///4276
END

Lead Time: 33.43 hour(s)
Difference: -31.10 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Mary Aronne (M2M SWAO) on 2025-11-06T12:28Z

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